The supply pressure was greater, and corn fell below an 11-month low!

The supply pressure was greater, and corn fell below an 11-month low!

In the context of high overall supply pressure and insufficient demand, corn fell on the 9th within 10 days, from above 2,600 yuan all the way to below 2,500 yuan. On Friday, the trading center shifted down again, and the intraday dropped to an 11-month low of 2,474 yuan/ton, and finally fell by 0.88%. The trading volume expanded to 549,000 lots, and the open interest increased to 794,000 lots for the third consecutive day.

The external disk closed lower due to the intertwined factors of long and short. The expected rainfall in the US planting belt boosted crop growth prospects, and Chinese buyers once again canceled their purchase contracts. Colombia exports and sells corn. In South American production areas, the second corn harvest in Brazil is nearing completion. Consulting firm StoneX lowered its forecast for Brazil's corn output in 2020/21 from 82 million tons to 59.6 million tons. And said that after the harvest in Parana, Brazil's second largest corn-producing state, the output forecast may be further reduced.

In terms of supply, corn in some regions began to enter the market sporadically, and the auction of imported corn continued to enter the market to supplement, and the market has entered a transitional stage of new aging. After mid-September, summer corn in the main producing areas of the Northeast will be ripe for harvest, officially kicking off the launch of autumn grains, and the corn market supply will continue to increase.

On the demand side, in order to reduce production costs, feed companies and farmers have used low-priced wheat, rice, bran, sorghum, and imported grains to replace corn on a large scale, causing the consumption of corn to be suppressed. With the slight increase in domestic wheat prices, the price advantage of wheat in some areas has gradually diminished, but it has not yet reached the level of affecting the formula. Moreover, according to JCI tracking and understanding, the grain stocks of large-scale feed companies are generally sustainable until the end of September and the beginning of October, and the substitution of multiple grains will still squeeze the feed consumption of corn.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "Monthly Report on the Analysis of the Supply and Demand Situation of Agricultural Products", stating that many parts of Henan suffered heavy rainfall, and some corn plots had accumulated water, but most of the accumulated water had been discharged, and the impact was within a controllable range. The substitute advantage of wheat for corn is still obvious, and some new season corn will be listed in late August. In addition, imported corn will continue to arrive in Hong Kong, and the price of live pigs will fall sharply. The domestic corn market price is expected to fluctuate at a high level.