In view of the reduced production of Chinese sesame for the past three consecutive years, resulting in an annual shortage of 150,000-200,000 tons, which is difficult to recover in a short time and still needs imports instead, along with generally reduced production from major producing countries in which supplies are not enough, the port inventory is relatively reasonable at present. Despite no better-than-expected consumption after the end of the epidemic control, the supply and demand have been in a tight balance.
In the short term, with China's economy recovering, consumer confidence improving and the holiday and seasonal consumption peak approaching, the prices will still remain strong if imports in the 2nd quarter cannot improve in order to safeguard reasonable port inventory. At the same time, the stabilization of the RMB exchange rate, the slow fading of foreign inflation, the continuous input of inflation, and the high import cost also support our market prices to continue to run high.
In the long term, the extraordinary resilience of China's sesame consumption during the epidemic period indicates that the market potential is still great, but high prices have inhibited consumption and some are being possibly replaced by other goods with better prices. Fundamentally, the future market largely depends on the sowing of new goods and weather conditions. In the meantime, the trend of commodities, monetary policy changes in major economies, and geopolitical risks such as how the Russia-Ukraine war will be headed. and black swan events may further aggravate market volatility.
Processing demand survey
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